As the war on Iran continues, what is it teaching China about US resilience?

Whether the US-Israeli war on Iran wraps up quickly or drags on, the repercussions will be felt for years, reshaping warfare, geopolitics and energy security as well as how the world sees the United States and its tactical and strategic capabilities. In the second of a three-part series, we examine some of the implications likely to unfold over months and years, affecting the future of conflict in an increasingly unstable world.

Now in its sixth week and with the risks of a prolonged war on the rise, the conflict is a rare window for China to gauge American wartime resilience and holds implications for Beijing’s strategic assessment and decision-making.

Analysts cautioned that US advantages in intelligence, technology and rapid operational adaptability on display in the conflict would not automatically translate into sustained warfighting capacity.

Constraints that were structurally undermining Washington’s capacity to remedy vulnerabilities included a shrinking defence industrial base, the high costs of asymmetric warfare and growing international and domestic disquiet, they said.

Iran has proved more resilient than expected, continuing its missile attacks on targets in the region, and the loss of an F-15E fighter jet – despite the recovery of its crew

– has undercut US claims of total dominance over Iranian airspace.