‘Johor formula’ could offer BN a winning blueprint in Negeri Sembilan 

PUTRAJAYA – Barisan Nasional’s (BN) successful strategy in the Johor state election could serve as a winning blueprint for the coalition in the upcoming Negeri Sembilan polls, according to political analysts.

Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Professor Datuk Dr P Sivamurugan said BN’s victory in 48 of Johor’s 56 state seats was not a coincidence but the result of several factors that strengthened voters’ confidence in the coalition.

He said the key factors included strong central and state leadership, BN’s experience as the incumbent government and a campaign centred on political stability.

“All these were among the reasons BN succeeded. In addition, there was a shift in Pas support towards BN and the absence of Chinese voters backing DAP. These were among the factors that contributed,” he told Sinar Harian.

Commenting on BN’s prospects in the Negeri Sembilan state election, Sivamurugan said the coalition should maintain the same approach if it hoped to carry Johor’s winning momentum into the state.

However, he said BN should quickly name its poster boy to strengthen voters’ confidence, while also considering contesting on its own, as it did in Johor.

“In Johor, one of the key factors behind the victory was BN’s decision to contest on its own. Perhaps BN will make the same decision by contesting independently instead of cooperating with Pakatan Harapan (PH) as it does at the federal level, so as to avoid criticism or negative sentiment and replicate its success in Johor.

“But in Johor, the poster boy was clear. The poster boy must be clearly identified to build the confidence and trust of Negeri Sembilan voters,” he said.

Sivamurugan also believed BN’s landslide victory in Johor reflected a shift in voter sentiment, with greater emphasis now placed on campaigns promoting stability rather than attacks on political opponents.

He said BN’s campaign in Johor had focused on state leadership and political stability instead of character assassination or criticising its rivals.

“Compared to PH, which continued using old narratives, including the Najib issue, even though he is already in prison. A royal pardon is a palace matter, no longer a court matter. Therefore, these issues are no longer considered relevant,” he said.

Asked whether Johor’s voting pattern could be replicated in Negeri Sembilan despite differences in demographics and seat composition, Sivamurugan said it remained possible if BN stayed true to the same formula.

“It can happen if the same formula is applied, with full cooperation within BN and a focus on state issues, community concerns and local matters. BN also governed Negeri Sembilan for a long period,” he said.

Meanwhile, Ilham Centre research fellow Mujibu Abd Muis cautioned against assuming BN’s landslide victory in Johor could automatically be repeated in Negeri Sembilan, noting that both states had different political structures, demographics and electoral dynamics.

He said although the Johor result had given BN political momentum, it would not necessarily create a bandwagon effect among Negeri Sembilan voters.

Mujibu said PH, as the incumbent administration in Negeri Sembilan, also enjoyed an advantage, and BN should not assume the Johor formula would naturally produce the same outcome.

“Momentum helps from a psychological perspective, but victory will still depend on how well BN adapts its strategy to the political realities in Negeri Sembilan,” the political analyst said.

He also believed BN’s victory in Johor reflected a growing tendency among voters to assess state government performance and political stability rather than being influenced solely by national sentiment.

Mujibu said the trend of issue-based voting and performance-based voting had become increasingly evident as voters began distinguishing between their assessment of the state and Federal governments.

He said the main lesson from the Johor state election was that every party needed to offer a narrative that resonated more closely with the people's daily lives, field credible candidates and focus on local issues, as Johor’s electoral outcome could not simply be replicated in Negeri Sembilan because of its different political landscape.