Biggest loser? Analysts say PH faces toughest questions after Negeri Sembilan defeat

SHAH ALAM – Pakatan Harapan (PH) has emerged as the biggest casualty of the Negeri Sembilan state election, with political analysts saying the coalition must urgently reassess its strategy after losing power in a state it previously governed.

They said while Bersatu suffered a complete collapse and PKR also recorded significant setbacks, PH's defeat carried greater political weight because it represented a rejection of an incumbent state administration and reflected growing public dissatisfaction with the coalition's performance at both the state and federal levels.

International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri said PH's losses were the most significant outcome of the election.

"PH emerged as the biggest loser in the recent Negeri Sembilan state election. Although Bersatu performed poorly and failed to gain significant traction, that outcome was largely expected.

"PH’s result, however, was more significant because it had previously governed the state. Losing six seats after leading the state government represents a major setback," she told Sinar Daily.

Syaza said the outcome indicated that PH needed to reassess its political strategy at both the state and national levels, as many voters appeared to be treating state elections as a referendum on the coalition’s performance in Putrajaya.

She added that if the coalition could quickly demonstrate its commitment to fulfilling the promises made to voters, it might be able to stop further losses.

"However, regaining ground against the newly formed Barisan Nasional–Perikatan Nasional (BN-PN) alliance will be challenging given the current political environment and public sentiment. In the near term, the priority should be preventing further erosion of support," she said.

Syaza added that short-term prospects for smaller opposition parties such as Muda and Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) remain limited, particularly as both parties did not contest in the Negeri Sembilan election.

She added that the two parties are competing for the centre-left voter base rather than directly challenging the BN-PN alliance, which is expected to maintain strong support among Malay voters.

"Among non-Malay voters, Bersama may have a better opportunity to gain traction because it is a new party and there may be a willingness to give Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli a chance.

"Muda, however, appears to have reached a stalemate and is unlikely to significantly increase its support or alter the political landscape in the short term," she said.

Political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun, however, said the coalition's overall performance differed from that of its individual component parties, identifying Bersatu and PKR as the biggest losers in the Negeri Sembilan state election.

He said Bersatu, which had previously held several seats, failed to secure any seats this time, while PKR also suffered significant losses in the election.

"Although DAP (former) secretary-general Anthony Loke was defeated, the party still secured nine seats overall. For that reason, DAP cannot be regarded as one of the election's biggest losers.

"Looking ahead to the possibility of the Melaka state election, BN is expected to remain in a strong position, leaving PH with limited room to make significant gains. In that context, DAP is likely to focus on consolidating support among non-Malay voters.

"As for Muda and Bersama, they may be better positioned to concentrate on urban constituencies in future elections, particularly in the Klang Valley, where their appeal is likely to be stronger than in other parts of the country," he said.

BN and PN secured a decisive victory in the Negeri Sembilan state election on Aug 1, winning 25 of the 36 seats to obtain a two-thirds majority and end PH's administration after two terms.

The Election Commission confirmed the results shortly before midnight, with BN winning 18 seats and PN seven seats. PH secured the remaining 11 seats.

The election also saw several PH heavyweights defeated, including Loke and former menteri besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun, marking another electoral setback for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's coalition.