Chinese stocks to stagnate in second half on lack of catalysts, top brokerages say

Chinese stocks are likely to tread water in the second half as investors refrain from big bets amid a lack of fresh catalysts, according to the nation’s top-ranked brokerages.

China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index barely budged in the first half, as investors waited for more policy signals from Beijing to bolster growth and watched the trade talks with the US for positive signs. Meanwhile, the economic recovery was uneven, with retail sales rebounding on a trade-in programme for household appliances, exports holding up on front-loading, and woes lingering in the property market. The yield on the 10-year government bond fell to a record low of 1.597 per cent in January on expectations of interest-rate cuts by the central bank.

The caution contrasts with global investment banks’ relatively upbeat views

, which they said would benefit from interest-rate reductions by the Federal Reserve and a reallocation of capital seeking to diversify away from US assets. The Hang Seng Index

rose 20 per cent in the first half.

GF Securities, Industrial Securities and Shenwan Hongyuan were ranked among mainland China’s top four brokerages in the equity strategy category by New Fortune magazine last year.