Malaysia's next general election: Timing is everything

With political fragility, economic risks and shifting alliances in play, Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim may find an early election the safer bet.

Malaysia’s 15th General Election (GE15), held on Nov 19, 2022, capped a turbulent period that began after the watershed 2018 polls.

Between May 2018 and November 2022, Malaysia saw three prime ministers – Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob – as fragile coalitions rose and fell amid defections, confidence crises and backroom manoeuvres, most notably the “Sheraton Move”.

Although the 14th Parliament was not due to expire until July 16, 2023, Ismail Sabri advised the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to dissolve it early on Oct 10, 2022, setting the stage for a defining election.

The Anwar Ibrahim government

GE15 produced a hung parliament, an unfamiliar outcome for a country long accustomed to dominant-party rule since independence in 1957.

Pakatan Harapan (PH) emerged as the largest bloc with 82 seats (37.95 per cent of the vote), followed by Perikatan Nasional (PN) with 74 seats (30.04 per cent), while Barisan Nasional (BN) suffered a historic collapse, winning just 30 seats (22.24 per cent).

BN’s losses in traditional strongholds reflected public disillusionment with corruption scandals and perceptions it no longer represented core Malay interests. Meanwhile, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), with 23 seats, emerged as kingmaker, underscoring the growing influence of East Malaysian parties.

With no coalition commanding the 112 seats required for a majority, intense post-election negotiations followed. After PN rejected proposals for a broad coalition, the monarchy intervened. On Nov 24, 2022, following consultations with the Conference of Rulers, the Yang di-Pertuan Agong appointed Anwar Ibrahim as Malaysia’s tenth prime minister, ending days of uncertainty.

When will Malaysia’s next general election be held?

Like most Westminster systems, Malaysia does not have fixed election dates. Parliament may sit for up to five years from its first meeting, and elections must be held within 60 days of dissolution.

The current Parliament first convened on Dec 19, 2022, meaning it will dissolve by December 2027, with GE16 due no later than early 2028.

In practice, however, elections are often called earlier. Given current dynamics, a more realistic window for GE16 is between 2026 and 2027.

Why an early election is increasingly likely

Several factors suggest Anwar may opt for an early poll. First, consolidating advantage. Having finally secured the premiership after decades in opposition, Anwar may seek a stronger mandate if conditions remain favourable.

Second, coalition fragility. The unity government is broad but not deeply cohesive. Internal tensions and the risk of defections persist. An early election could reset the political landscape.

Third, opposition dynamics. If Perikatan Nasional remains divided, the government may move early to capitalise. If the opposition gains momentum, an early election could blunt its rise.

Fourth, legitimacy. Anwar came to power through post-election negotiations. A fresh mandate would strengthen his authority.

Fifth, economic timing. External shocks, including geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices, risk fuelling inflation. An early election may allow the government to act before pressures intensify.

Sixth, political liabilities. Ongoing controversies, including corruption issues and the Najib Razak pardon debate, could erode public trust if left to fester.

A convergence of pressures

Ultimately, timing will be decisive. Dissolution as early as late 2026 could allow Anwar to consolidate power while conditions remain manageable.

Geopolitical tensions, subsidy pressures, coalition instability and rising cost-of-living concerns are converging. Delaying until 2027 or 2028 may not be neutral – it could be a strategic gamble.

For Anwar, calling an early election may offer the advantage of choice: to set the timing and terrain, rather than be forced into a less favourable contest later.

The views expressed here are the personal opinion of the writer and do not represent that of Twentytwo13.