‘Sabah for Sabahans’: State polls will test strength of local-first sentiment, say analysts

KOTA KINABALU (June 13): As Sabah heads into its 17th state election (PRN17), political tensions are mounting, with signs pointing toward a contest that may pit state-based parties against the country’s major national coalitions.

The rallying cry “Sabah for Sabahans” is gaining renewed momentum as Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) — the ruling state coalition — weighs its next move amid shifting alliances and growing questions about federal influence in state affairs.

Sabahan-first politics

In recent years, Sabah-based parties — including GRS components Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR) and Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), as well as opposition party Warisan — have increasingly positioned themselves as defenders of state rights under the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63).

GRS’s key component party Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah is largely made up of Umno-turned-Bersatu leaders who left their former party for a more local platform.

They argue that only homegrown parties truly understand the state’s needs and aspirations — and are best placed to stand firm against federal dominance.

Universiti Teknologi Mara’s Tony Paridi Bagang said a contest between state-based and national parties would offer a clear campaign narrative — state rights versus federal funding and stability.

“GRS going solo will be interesting; it’s a test of GRS as a government, and as a fully local alliance, and at the same time will see how local parties in national coalitions, like PBRS and Upko, what their influence will be like now,” he said.

“It’s still a good way to see whether the growing local sentiments can translate into votes.

“Just contesting on their own is the start of a change in narrative for Sabah politics and if they win, it will be even more meaningful — they will gain a lot more leverage and have better bargaining power,” he added.

Political analyst Bridget Welsh agreed that this local-first approach has merit, as the political current appears to favour a “Sabah bloc” — though much will still depend on how alliances are configured.

“Anti-federal (especially anti-Umno) sentiments are currently strong,” she said.

Coalition talks in limbo

The local-first sentiment has also been further fuelled by Sarawak’s recent success in securing greater control over its oil and gas resources.

Many Sabahans have been asking: “If Sarawak can do it, why not us?”

Despite strong calls from within GRS’s component parties to contest the election independently, Chief Minister and GRS chairman Datuk Seri Panglima Hajiji Noor initially indicated keenness to continuing cooperation with current state government partner Sabah Pakatan Harapan (PH).

However, his position was shaken when Sabah PH announced an election partnership with Sabah Barisan Nasional (BN) — its former allies turned opposition.

The two national coalitions described the move as a rational step to ensure political stability and preserve good relations between state and federal governments.

In response, Hajiji swiftly issued a statement saying GRS was ready to contest the election on its own if Sabah PH proceeded with the alliance.

Prime Minister and PH chairman Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim later responded by saying that GRS would be included in the election coalition.

Since then, Hajiji has maintained that GRS remains open to discussions — but has stressed that a Sabah-based party must lead the state government.

No formal talks have taken place between the two sides.

One of the biggest obstacles in the way of this three-way alliance is Sabah BN chairman Datuk Bung Moktar Radin, who has dismissed any possibility of working with GRS until after the election, citing past “betrayals” and broken promises from the previous state election.

Autonomy push may meet resistance

Bagang said there could be risks if GRS chooses to go it alone, as the coalition may come under increased pressure.

He noted that if GRS were to contest on its own, it might face heightened political pressure — including “money politics” as well as the influence of “media and political machinery”.

He added that the recent whistleblowing scandal involving mining licences is likely to resurface and affect GRS and its leadership.

The Madani factor

Contrary to the view that GRS may go it alone, Universiti Malaysia Sabah senior lecturer Lee Kuok Tiung said that GRS is more likely to work with PH and BN — despite its strained relationship with the latter.

“I believe GRS will want to maintain its current set-up with PH. The only problem is that they don’t get along with BN but they will find a way or just head into a collision course in certain seats,” he said.

“GRS will have a lot to gain by contesting independently but the prime minister has something else in mind.

“He also has to maintain good relations with Zahid and both will still need a local partner at the end of the day and want to work with GRS,” he added.

Bagang agreed that while many Sabahans were keen to see if the local-first sentiment was more than just a slogan, he said it would be “safer” if the current dynamic is maintained.

“We need to consider the federal factor because our political dynamic is not like Sarawak, whose local coalition is strongly established,” he said.

“I think, with the undercurrent issues, sentiments, GRS may still stick with PH-BN but we’ll see some overlapping in their seats,” he added.

With the growing fragmentation among parties potentially leading to multi-cornered fights in many seats, split votes may give unexpected advantages to some blocs.

Analysts predict that this could result in a hung assembly — or even a repeat of the chaotic post-election realignments that followed the 2020 polls.

If the election becomes a contest between local versus national parties, the outcome could reshape Sabah’s political landscape and redefine its federal-state relations.

With the stakes so high, all eyes are now on the alliances, manifestos, and the voters’ sentiments. — Malay Mail