China mostly unscathed by turbulent six months, but 2025 still an uphill climb

While China’s economy has shown considerable resilience through a turbulent first half of 2025 – navigating the dramatic twists and turns of US trade policy while maintaining steady growth - experts warn Beijing’s challenges are far from over.

Although many believe the country can still hit its annual goal of “around 5 per cent” for gross domestic product growth, more pressure points are expected to emerge in the latter half of the year.

Although the decline in China’s shipments to the US has been partially offset by heightened trade with a more diversified set of partners, Barclays forecast that export growth will slow to zero in the second half of the year, owing to a payback effect from a front-loading of orders in the first half and a projected slowdown in US consumer spending.

China Galaxy Securities was less optimistic, predicting that exports in the next six months will contract, with an ultimate annual growth rate of around 1.5 per cent.