Misjudged power: Why Asia must learn from history

As tensions continue to rise between major powers, particularly the United States and China, Southeast Asia must navigate an increasingly uncertain strategic environment.

Graham Allison’s Destined for War explores a compelling idea known as the “Thucydides Trap.” This concept warns that when an emerging power challenges an established one, the risk of conflict becomes dangerously real.

Drawing from 16 historical examples, 12 of which ended in war, the book offers timely insights into how misjudging intentions or strength can lead to catastrophic consequences.

For countries like Malaysia that depend on regional stability and open trade, these lessons are more than academic. They serve as a clear reminder of what could be lost if great power rivalry spirals out of control.

Allison does not claim that war is unavoidable. Instead, he explains that many past conflicts were not the result of careful planning, but of miscalculation. One side often misreads the resolve or capabilities of the other.

This warning is particularly relevant today as tensions continue to rise over Taiwan and the South China Sea. The book provides a useful lens for understanding how misunderstandings between powerful nations can escalate, even when neither side desires confrontation.

Recent global events reinforce these concerns. Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022, many believed it would be resolved within a matter of weeks. More than two years later, the war continues with no clear resolution in sight and with deep scars across Europe.

If a similar misjudgement were to occur in Asia, the resulting damage would be far more widespread. The consequences would extend well beyond military zones, affecting economies, regional trust, and long-term cooperation.

One of the strengths of Destined for War is its refusal to present conflict as a cultural or civilisational clash. Instead, the book focuses on transitions of power. Some of the most dangerous confrontations in modern history, such as the Cold War or the First World War, took place between countries that shared cultural and historical roots. This suggests that conflict is driven less by ideology and more by shifting power dynamics, along with the anxiety that accompanies them. That distinction is important for a region as diverse and interconnected as Southeast Asia.

Still, it is common to hear public discourse framed as a struggle between East and West. These narratives often rely more on emotion and nostalgia than on fact. No civilisation remains unchanged. Even within China, ideas such as Confucianism or Han identity have been shaped and reshaped over centuries through internal evolution, conflict, and reform. The real strength of a civilisation lies not in its origin stories but in its ability to adapt, respond to challenges, and build consensus in times of uncertainty.

This perspective holds particular importance for middle powers like Malaysia. In today’s global climate, neutrality is no longer a passive or silent position. It demands strategic awareness, clarity of purpose, and diplomatic skill. Malaysia has long managed a delicate balance between engagement with global powers and support for regional stability. That balancing role has never been more critical. As larger nations assert their influence, smaller states can still carve out meaningful space for dialogue, mediate rising tensions, and reinforce the principles of peaceful cooperation.

The recent passing of Dr Henry Kissinger, who played a vital role in opening diplomatic channels between the United States and China during the Cold War, reminds us of the value of communication. His legacy underscores how deliberate, patient diplomacy helped prevent larger confrontations. Today, such channels are fewer and the global climate is more volatile. This means the responsibility to promote dialogue may now fall more heavily on smaller nations and regional organisations.

At the core of Allison’s message is a simple but powerful truth. Military strength alone does not prevent war. Good judgment does. The greatest danger comes from collective overconfidence, the mistaken belief that one side can easily win or that the other will not retaliate. In a world that is more connected than ever, such assumptions can quickly lead to unintended consequences that no country can fully control.

For Southeast Asia, the outbreak of a major power conflict would be deeply damaging. It would derail development, disrupt trade, and shatter investor confidence. The region would be forced to bear the cost of a war it did not choose. This is why diplomacy, regional trust-building, and cooperative mechanisms must remain central to the region’s foreign policy agenda. Neutrality does not mean remaining silent. It means speaking clearly when tensions rise and offering practical alternatives to violence.

Despite the seriousness of its subject, Destined for War also leaves room for optimism. The book reminds us that war is not an inevitable outcome. It is a choice. Each generation has the opportunity to reshape the path of history through restraint, wisdom, and honest reflection. Allison’s work urges leaders and citizens alike to recognise how fragile peace can be and how essential it is to protect it through thoughtful action.

Asean continues to play a crucial role in preserving dialogue and stability. While often described as cautious, the organisation remains one of the few spaces where countries from across the political spectrum can meet and speak openly. That space is invaluable. Malaysia, in particular, is well placed to lead by example, encouraging cooperation that values stability over dominance. When neutrality is applied with purpose and clarity, it becomes a quiet but powerful form of leadership.

In the end, Destined for War is not simply a warning. It is a mirror. It reflects the ease with which leaders can misjudge intentions, the speed at which competition can escalate, and the urgent need to learn from the past. The real risk lies in assuming we are wiser than those who came before us. We are not. But we can be more careful.

The future remains unwritten. The path forward depends on how deeply we understand the past and how wisely we manage the present.

Colonel Wang Xin serves in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), specifically within the China Rocket Force, and is currently attending the Malaysian Armed Forces Defence College (MAFDC), PUSPAHANAS, in Putrajaya.

The views expressed here are the personal opinion of the writer and do not necessarily represent that of Twentytwo13.