Brazil races to China beef cap as 55% tariff risks price collapse

Brazil is on course to exhaust its annual beef export quota to China by September, industry researchers said on Tuesday, as the government warns that uncontrolled shipments could trigger a collapse in domestic prices and jobs in the cattle sector.

If the pace of exports recorded in January is maintained, Brazil will fill its 2026 quota of 1.106 million tonnes well before year end, according to the Centre for Advanced Studies on Applied Economics at the University of Sao Paulo, known as Cepea.

In the first month of 2026 alone, Brazil shipped 119,630 tonnes of beef to China, the largest volume ever recorded for January.

China announced that imports exceeding a fixed country quota in 2026 would face a 55 per cent tariff, sharply above the standard 12 per cent rate. The measure applies to Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and the United States. For Brazil, the ceiling was set at about 1.1 million tonnes.

Shipments above that threshold risk becoming commercially unviable and, in an internal letter obtained by the Brazilian newspaper of record Folha de S. Paulo last week, the Ministry of Agriculture said the absence of a coordinated response could lead to “strong disorganisation of trade flows” and raise the risk of a “collapse in prices and employment” across the beef supply chain.