Zahid Or Onn Hafiz? Analysts Split On Who Has Most To Lose In Johor Poll Gamble

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Political analysts are divided over who has the most at stake in the upcoming Johor state election, though Umno leaders have emerged as the figures facing the biggest political gamble.International Islamic University Malaysia political analyst and ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute fellow Associate Professor Dr Syaza Shukri said that Umno President Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi arguably has the most at stake as the election is widely seen as a Barisan Nasional (BN)-driven move.

While acknowledging speculation that the push for the early polls could have come from Johor Umno and BN chief Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi or the Johor palace, Syaza said the Umno president would inevitably be linked to the decision.

“I would argue that the one most at stake is perhaps Zahid. Because this is a BN-led move. Some say Onn Hafiz is behind it, some say the palace, but whatever it is the president must be behind it as well.

“If the gamble works and BN comes up winning a comfortable majority then great. But if not, that would set the tone for other elections and the need for Zahid to defend his role as president of Umno,” she told TRP via WhatsApp.

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Syaza said Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim also had much to lose, but could argue that the decision to seek fresh polls was beyond his control.

On whether Johor could serve as a precursor to the 16th General Election (GE16), Syaza said timing would be crucial.

She said that if the 16th General Election (GE16) is held shortly after the state polls, the outcome could set the tone for the national contest.

However, she cautioned against reading too much into the results if the general election is only held towards the end of next year.

“We have to remember that’s what happened in 2022. BN was confident because they won Johor’s state election, but then when GE happened at the end of the year, BN came in third,” she added.

Meanwhile, Universiti Malaya senior lecturer Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub believes Onn Hafiz himself has the most riding on the election after initiating the dissolution of the state assembly despite BN already enjoying a comfortable majority.

According to Tawfik, the polls have effectively become a referendum on the Menteri Besar’s leadership, governance record and ability to secure a stronger mandate from voters.

“A convincing victory would strengthen his position within Umno, while a weaker performance could invite criticism over the necessity of holding an early election.”

Onn Hafiz surprisingly announced the dissolution of the Johor state legislative assembly on June 1, despite having said that the Johor state government has over a year more to govern the state.

At the federal level, Tawfik said Anwar would also face scrutiny as the Johor polls are expected to reflect public sentiment towards the Unity Government and the cooperation between Pakatan Harapan and BN.

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“A strong showing by the ruling coalition would reinforce confidence in the current federal arrangement, whereas a disappointing result could provide ammunition to critics who argue that support for the government is weakening ahead of the GE16.”

Beyond deciding the next state government, Tawfik described the Johor election as an important barometer of Malaysia’s political direction.

He pointed out that Johor’s mix of urban, semi-urban and rural constituencies make it an ideal testing ground to gauge support for both established and emerging parties.

The election, he said, would reveal whether voters remain supportive of the current political order, test PN’s ability to expand its influence among Malay voters and offer the first meaningful assessment of newer political forces seeking to challenge traditional parties.

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