Thai-Cambodian ceasefire faces tough tests despite rare border truce

Thailand and Cambodia have agreed to a detailed ceasefire arrangement aimed at ending weeks of deadly clashes along their shared border, but analysts warn the truce remains fragile and will depend on disciplined implementation and trust between local commanders.

The deal, reached under Malaysia’s Asean chairmanship, is one of the most comprehensive in years between the two neighbours, committing both sides to a strict ceasefire, limits on troop movements, and a regional monitoring mechanism led by Malaysia.

Fighting broke out in July near disputed areas around the Preah Vihear temple complex, with artillery and drone surveillance escalating tensions. At least 20 soldiers from both sides were reported killed and thousands displaced before Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thai acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai agreed to halt hostilities at a special meeting in Putrajaya, Malaysia’s administrative capital, on July 28.

Former envoy Datuk Ilango Karuppannan said the agreement was viable in the short term but fragile in a climate of eroded trust.

“The most important factor is implementation. Small incidents, such as local commanders reacting to fake news, can derail the process,” he told Twentytwo13.

He noted that Malaysia’s neutrality helps build confidence, saying its leadership of the Asean observer mission is a “logical extension of that trust”.

While the interim team’s inability to cross the border limits its scope, Ilango called it “an important stage to cross before trust is restored”, adding that border access could follow if violations remain absent.

At the Extraordinary General Border Committee (GBC) meeting in Kuala Lumpur on Aug 7, both sides pledged to maintain current troop positions, halt new fortifications, avoid provocative actions, and respect international humanitarian law.

An Interim Observer Team led by Malaysia – comprising defence attachés from Asean member states – will monitor compliance from each side of the border without crossing it. Implementation details will be discussed at the Regional Border Committee (RBC) meeting in two weeks.

Thailand’s Deputy Defence Minister, General Natthaphon Narkphanit, said Asean leaders had agreed to provide support but recognised the dispute should be resolved bilaterally by Thailand and Cambodia.

“This position is fully aligned with Thailand’s approach,” he told reporters in Kuala Lumpur after the meeting.

While acknowledging the meeting’s outcome, Natthaphon accused Cambodian troops of truce violations but said these could have been arbitrary acts by local units.

Cambodian Defence Minister Tea Seiha reaffirmed his government’s commitment to the ceasefire and urged the early conclusion of the terms of reference for the Asean Observer Team. He also called for the release of 18 Cambodian soldiers held by Thailand.

Demilitarisation

Veteran conflict analyst Don Pathan said the next steps should go beyond holding the line.

“Both sides should work towards demilitarisation. In the medium to long term, a stable border should not have too much military hardware,” he said, adding that civilian access to temples on both sides would be a key sign of progress.

Ilango warned that while bilateral mechanisms are fast, they “cannot be the sole mechanism” and Asean must build institutional capacity to respond to crises. He added that countering misinformation would be critical to maintaining stability.

Malaysia’s Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim met the Cambodian and Thai defence ministers in Putrajaya before the Thursday talks. Anwar said Malaysia would continue to facilitate dialogue and monitoring efforts.

“Lasting peace is only possible through dialogue, mutual respect and genuine friendship,” he said.

US Ambassador to Malaysia Edgard Kagan described the accord as “an important step” but stressed the goal must be “a sustainable and durable ceasefire”.

Washington and Beijing, both observers at the meeting, voiced support but will not take part in the monitoring mission.

Also in attendance on behalf of the Malaysian government were Home Minister Datuk Seri Saifuddin Nasution Ismail, Deputy Defence Minister Adly Zahari, and Armed Forces chief Tan Sri Mohd Nizam Jaffar, among others.

While the agreement reflects Asean’s consensus-based approach, Pathan cautioned that Bangkok could seek to return to purely bilateral talks once tensions ease.

“Malaysia’s role is essential now, but if a comfort level is achieved, don’t be surprised if Thailand asks Malaysia to back off,” he said.

Thailand and Cambodia have long disputed sovereignty over several undemarcated sections of their 817km land border, first mapped by France in 1907 when Cambodia was its colony.

The map – later contested by Thailand – was based on an agreement to demarcate the border along the natural watershed line between the two countries. Tensions flared over the Preah Vihear temple, which the International Court of Justice (ICJ) awarded to Cambodia in 1962.

In 2013, the ICJ again ruled in Cambodia’s favour, declaring the surrounding land, part of its territory.