Electoral landscape looking clearer as GE16 draws nearer

By Murray Hunter 

FOR many months, there have been stories and rumours about new political parties being formed, whether members of the current ‘Madani’ coalition remain intact or face the voters separately, and when the general election will actually be called.

Over the last weekend, these questions have been firmly answered.

Now Malaysians can see a clear electoral landscape forming and see how Malaysia’s political direction may look.

For the last month, there have been several direct hints about Umno’s intentions concerning the ‘Madani’ coalition.

Last month, 14 Negeri Sembilan Umno state assemblymen withdrew support for the current PKR Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun.

This action greatly destabilised the state government, sending rumblings to the federal Madani coalition in Putrajaya. Then late last week, the Johor Menteri Besar said that Umno plans to contest all 56 state seats solo.

This abruptly spelt the end of the effectiveness of the ‘Madani’ coalition. It's now clear that Umno in both Melaka and Johor are planning to call elections in each state in the next four months.

It's also very clear that Umno is already in deep preparation for elections, and this is putting pressure upon the prime minister, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, to call an early election, perhaps in the next few months.

On Sunday, Anwar said that a snap general election could take place if cracks continue to form within the unity government.

On another front, former ministers Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad both announced they are taking over Parti Bersama Malaysia and resigned from PKR.

Also present at the announcement were PKR MPs Wong Chen (Subang), Datuk Muhammad Bakhtiar Wan Chik (Balik Pulau), Rodziah Ismail (Ampang), Zahir Hassan (Wangsa Maju) and Lee Chean Chung (Petaling Jaya).

However, they have not made any formal commitments either way at this stage.

In another move on the Perikatan Nasional side, PAS announced the current Terengganu Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar, as the new leader of the opposition.

Samsuri, known as a moderate, now puts PAS at the head of PN, which has long been suspected, due to the current political infighting in Bersatu.

The new political fault-lines

The weekend’s events now show a much clearer position of where politics will go in the peninsula.

PN under Samsuri is expected to showcase ‘PAS as a safe choice’ for voters.

PAS can be expected to go back to the days of the late Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat and Datuk Fadzil Mohd Noor, where it will show itself as an alternative to ‘Madani’.

More time will show the PAS's approach to the coming election.

Umno is preparing to repackage itself as a competent party ready to run government as a ‘professional administration’ based on history and traditions.

There are strong rumours that a group within Umno is working very hard to gain a full pardon for Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who would be a ‘Trump card’.

Many in Umno believe that a free Najib would be able to make inroads back into the Malay heartlands once again.

One can only assume that Rafizi and Nik Nazmi’s Parti Bersama Malaysia will attempt to outdo ‘reformasi’ Pakatan Harapan.

This appears to be their strategy to entice potential voter support from citizens who were planning not to vote in the coming GE, which is believed to be plenty.

The key for Rafizi and Nik Nazmi will be to quickly snowball the party membership with ‘high calibre’ recruits to convince voters to come out and support the ‘old reformasi culture’ which it intends to hijack from PH.

The bottom line for Parti Bersama Malaysia will be having many personalities who bring trust.

Released electoral analysis reports have already indicated that PKR will be in for a very challenging election, where the same could be said for the other two components, DAP and Amanah.

The first important mission will be to mend the parties within PH back together and prevent the DAP from considering going alone, which many members want.

PKR must then develop a very sincere strategy conveying a narrative that it acted on behalf of a ‘unity government’ set-up and affirmed by the YDPA back in November 2022.

PKR must clearly argue that a fully mandated PH government would do things very differently.

It's going to be very difficult for political pundits to pick any clear winners in the coming general election, at least on the Peninsula side.

One will have to expect mostly four-cornered fights in each seat, and how the vote dissipates among candidates will be very difficult to predict. Personalities will be very important.

Once again, there will be another coalition after the coming election. No one today can predict what it will look like. – May 19, 2026