Ringgit forecast to trade between 4.24-4.26 vs US dollar next week

KUALA LUMPUR: The ringgit is expected to remain volatile next week, moving in the range between 4.24 and 4.26 against the US dollar, an analyst said.

Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid told Bernama that apart from the United States (US) tariff, the next key question is whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut the interest rates.

On that note, he said key data points would be the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June.

Thus far, the inflation rate has been quite manageable during the 90-day pause period.

“Obviously, the full implementation of reciprocal tariffs on August 1 would result in higher inflation, which could lead to the need to keep the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) steady as an ideal policy decision.

“The US dollar index (DXY) has been gradually climbing and therefore, emerging market currencies, including the ringgit, could stay on the low side,” Mohd Afzanizam said.

Meanwhile, SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes also said the ringgit is expected to trade within a narrow range ahead of the release of the US CPI next week, a key economic event likely to shape market direction and the Fed policy expectations.

The upcoming US inflation report, due Tuesday, would be closely watched by financial markets as it could offer clear signals on the path of interest rates, he said.

Innes said markets are particularly focused on the core CPI month-on-month figure, with 0.3 per cent seen as the critical threshold.

“A softer-than-expected reading could revive hopes for a September rate cut by the Fed, potentially leading to a pullback in the US dollar and offering the ringgit some relief,” Innes said.

However, he cautioned that a stronger print, particularly at 0.4 per cent or higher, would likely shift market expectations toward a more hawkish Fed, sparking renewed dollar strength.

“In that scenario, the US dollar-ringgit pair could climb toward 4.2700, although any initial spike may be short-lived if profit-taking emerges,” he noted.

He projected the ringgit to trade within a tactical range of 4.2400 to 4.2650, with market positioning expected to tighten further.

“For now, the ringgit remains a passenger in a vehicle driven by US macro outcomes -- not a driver in its own right,” Innes added.

On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the ringgit ended the week lower against the greenback, closing at 4.2475/2525 from 4.2180/2260 previously.

The local note traded mostly higher against a basket of major currencies.

The ringgit appreciated vis-a-vis the Japanese yen to 2.8893/8929 from 2.9225/9282, and increased against the British pound to 5.7524/7592 from 5.7601/7710 last Friday.

However, it marginally fell versus the euro to 4.9679/9737 from 4.9675/9770 at the end of last week.

Against ASEAN currencies, the ringgit was traded lower.

The local note was down against the Singapore dollar to 3.3186/3228 from 3.3114/3182, and narrowed versus the Indonesian rupiah to 261.8/262.3 from 260.6/261.2 previously.

It weakened versus the Thai baht to 13.0668/0886 from 13.0302/0609 and declined against the Philippine peso at 7.52/7.53 from 7.47/7.49 on last Friday.